The BRAC list, that is the list of bases proposed to be downsized or closed, was promulgated by the Pentagon after a process shrouded in mystery. Some of the unclassified information used to decide which bases to shutter and which ones to save is being so stubbornly withheld that Senator Lieberman of Connecticut has had to go to great lengths to gain access to even a portion of it, at least once threatening to subpoena the Department of Defense. Separately, the Government Accountability Office (GAO), a sort of independent internal auditor of the U.S. Government itself, stated publicly that certain procedures, data, and assumptions used in preparing The List appeared incorrect or flawed, or might be insupportable. To me, this sure does sound like one heck of a lack of transparency!

The 2005 BRAC closing list was originally conceived (and/or perceived) as being essentially set in concrete. Pundits noted that in prior closing efforts of the late 1980s through the mid-1990s, virtually all of the original recommendations were approved as is. Hardly any bases were added to the lists in each round of closings, and very few were ever taken off. This led to an initial feeling of pessimism on the part of those who hoped to save some of the bases on the 2005 list. But that pessimism was quickly mobilized into productive and outspoken action on the part of all sorts of legislative and private-sector individuals and coalitions. Their focus? The BRAC Commission. If you haven’t been following the story much, allow me to explain.

A crucial step, and considerable power, in finalizing The List rests in the hands of a group which is also showing commendable (and increasing?) skepticism. The BRAC Commission is a panel of nine persons, chaired by Anthony J. Principi, former Secretary of Veterans Affairs. According to the established 2005 BRAC process, the Commissioners by a vote of seven out of nine may add bases, and by a vote of five out of nine may subtract bases from The List. At this point it appears that Mr. Principi and other members of the Commission are asking hard questions that give hope to advocates of some threatened bases. They’ve also just given bad heartburn to supporters of several bases which were voted onto The List for the first time, at least tentatively, at a meeting on 19 July.

Every base closing has potential effects on multiple levels. These range from harm to the local economy (jobs) and loss of important historic sites, through to destruction of indispensable synergies with major defense contractors located very close to some bases. Other effects of base closings, such as environmental brownfield problems, include vast increases (possibly running to hundreds of billions of dollars) in types of costs which were downplayed or ignored by the Pentagon’s cost-saving calculations. The broadest effect of all, of course, is BRAC’s unfortunate creation of dangerous gaps in the entire fabric of national defense, homeland security, and military recruiting and training infrastructures. The Commissioners, in private meetings and public hearings all around the country, are realizing these things and have been sharply querying the basis of The List. The method and manner of their investigations imply (to me, at least) healthy contrarianism regarding how SECDEF Rumsfeld and his cohorts ever developed their base closure and realignment recommendations to begin with.

A few choice quotes might help to set the present tone. Mr. Principi has stated that his Commission’s efforts are “not a rubber-stamp activity.” Speaking after a recent tour of the Naval Submarine Base New London, Connecticut Governor M. Jodi Rell said “Having four commissioners here today was unprecedented.” In contrast, a Pentagon official, possibly using Mr. Rumsfeld’s own words, insisted that making even one alteration to The List could throw asunder the “comprehensive, integrated, and interdependent” balance of the whole.

Was the original BRAC List flawed? A series of juries, so to speak, will reach their verdicts soon, and each of us will have to live with the consequences forever; agreement seems to be widespread that most bases, once closed, can never be reopened.

What happens now? The BRAC Commissioners need to announce their finalized list, in late summer or early autumn. President Bush and Congress have says in the matter, too. But the ultimate judge, harshest, most unforgiving, and most objective of all, will be the outcome of future history -- favorable or unfavorable for America and our place in the world. So we damned well better get it right this year. Be very glad that the BRAC Commissioners are proving to be one hard-nosed bunch who won’t take any guff or bluff, reject double-talk and fuzzed-up spreadsheets, and don’t let anybody push them around.

JoeBuff.Com / Joe Buff Inc. Joe Buff, President Dutchess County, New York E-Mail readermail@JoeBuff.Com