Two pieces of relevant (and potentially significant) information were covered in Military.com’s INTEL AND RUMORS feature in recent weeks. As such, the information may be speculative or even false -- or may be based on a well-placed and credible source who can’t allow themselves to be named (because it could get them fired or get them killed). Under the circumstances, let’s call these pieces of information “theories.” Here they are:

Theory #1: When Operation Iraqi Freedom began, Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction stockpiles did not actually exist. Some Iraqi defectors who said that they did were double agents, working for Saddam all along, who knowingly lied. Others, tagged early by the Baath Party as defection risks, were shown mock-ups or small items and cynically led to believe that these were the tips of icebergs of huge quantities of WMDs. This latter set of defectors was then permitted to change sides, to tell untruths they wholly believed to be true. It was all a gigantic deception plan, to make the U.S. and our Allies believe the WMDs existed. Saddam’s goal was to strengthen his hand at home: By making him seem more powerful than he really was on the ground in Iraq, he’d squelch potential internal opposition, and by stirring up the outside world he’d create an external threat that would heighten his hold on a brutal dictatorship even more. He never imagined a U.S.-led coalition would actually invade his country to neutralize those (phony) WMDs. Saddam’s deception plan, a monumental bluff, worked all too well.

Theory #2: The weapons of mass destruction really did exist in quantity. As the Allied coalition geared up for war, in January of 2003 a long convoy of trucks departed Iraq, crossed Syria, and stopped in the Bekaa Valley of southern Lebanon. This convoy was noticed by the CIA, but then for whatever reason was neglected or ignored, without the contents of those trucks ever being confirmed. Theory #2 is that the purpose of this convoy, or another shipment on another date, was to send Saddam’s WMDs to a safe haven outside Iraq. (The Bekaa Valley is a stronghold of anti-U.S. militias and terrorist groups, supported by Syria, and is virtually impenetrable to pro-U.S. intelligence and Special Forces operatives.)

Theory 1 and Theory 2 are, as I write this, equally neither proven nor disproven. They directly contradict each other, so they can’t possibly both be true. But one or the other might indeed be true. Either theory neatly explains why after months of searching we haven’t yet found Saddam’s WMDs anywhere on or under Iraqi soil.

Let me make a few observations about these theories, and then explore (at least as a mental exercise) an important conclusion that either theory would lead to, though from opposite directions.

Theory #1 is certainly plausible. Saddam’s motives implied by the theory make sense. Defectors are notorious as possibly unreliable sources, for any one of a long list of reasons including those cited above. Deception has been a major part of war, and of pre-war martial posturing since World War II and Alexander the Great -- and probably before recorded history.

Theory #2 is also plausible, and in character for Saddam. In the 1991 Gulf War, most of his air force flew to sanctuary in Iran to avoid destruction in dog fights or on the tarmac. (At that time, Iraq had barely finished a long and bloody conflict with Iran, so the craving for shelter on neutral soil must have been very pressing.) And in the 1991 Gulf War, Saddam launched Scud missiles at Israel, some of which did hit inside the borders of that hated enemy. What better way to retain a viable WMD strike at Israel, than to secrete the weapons closer to their target using trucks, and leave the WMDs in territory owned by factions that also hate Israel? One may ask, if Theory #2 is true why haven’t the WMDs been used already? I can only guess that the actual weapons are closely supervised by armed persons loyal to Saddam, and Saddam -- the “man always on the move,” perhaps the most wanted fugitive on the planet (not counting bin Laden) -- has been unable to issue directives to release the WMDs. Or maybe, since the mind of a toppled dictator could be utterly unfathomable, his rules of engagement, his “permissive action links” for special weapons, have not been triggered because in his view the time is not yet ripe -- or because Syria chooses not to invite apocalytic vengeance.

If Theory #1 is true, then the U.S., UK and related intelligence services were deceived on purpose, led by the nose, rather shrewdly and aggressively. In that case, Operation Iraqi Freedom was launched in part because of flawed information, but nevertheless the military campaign to urgently neutralize the WMDs was completely sincere and done in good faith. No national leaders in the West either knowingly or willing betrayed the trust of their citizenry, nor did any one senior intentionally -- in fact or in spirit -- violate his or her oath of office or shirk his or her heavy burdens of command.

If Theory #2 is true, that the WMDs exist but the Allies didn’t know or believe that they’d been moved, an identical conclusion can still be drawn: Intelligence analysis was faulty, but the crippling of Saddam’s regime through swift and deadly force was justified by the best assessments then available. (If the Bekaa Valley now holds such a WMD threat as Theory #2 posits, the area must be carefully watched and very closely contained.)

No one who understands these matters seriously questions America’s need for significantly better intelligence in the Global War on Terror, and in the parallel (and frightening) contest to halt the proliferation of atomic bombs.

But everyone involved in debates on the honesty and competence of Allied national leaders -- who directed that Operation Iraqi Freedom be launched precisely how and when it was -- needs to pay close attention to this tale of the two theories, before passing what might be unwarranted negative judgment. Political unity is essential now, because we could all be in for a pleasant or very unpleasant surprise any day: Saddam’s WMDs are finally found, hidden but harmless, or their existence is proven by some awful tragedy when they’re used.

JoeBuff.Com / Joe Buff Inc. Joe Buff, President Dutchess County, New York E-Mail readermail@JoeBuff.Com