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JOE BUFF’S PUBLIC LECTURE
“Will China Rule the Waves?”
An Overview of Possible Future Risks/Opportunities
by Joseph Buff, 2006
U.S. Navy Submarine Force Library and Museum, Groton 20 May 2006, All opinions are solely those of the speaker.

Photo Courtesy: Walter P. Noonan

“Will China Rule the Waves?”

1. Why do we need to be asking this question?

2. What factors might influence the answer?

3. What should we do soon to positively affect the outcome?

Risk Management perspective:

1. Analyze the possible downsides

2. Take account of worst-cases in your planning/budgeting

3. Learn from past experiences: good, bad, ugly

4. Expect the unexpected

5. “Better safe than sorry”

Overview of China – some issues that interconnect

Very bad human rights record

Restiveness is violently repressed

Tianenmen Square massacre same year Berlin Wall fell

Falon Gong members beaten, die “in police custody”

Foreign journalists detained on pretexts: problem underreported?

Powerful, growing economy

Manipulative yuan/dollar exchange rate

Bad ecocide, huge energy needs

Real population 1.5 billion – 300,000,000 unregistered births

Ambitious, driven, proud, patriotic/nationalistic people

Rural/urban schism nothing new

Superb university system emerging, amazing PhD output numbers

Post-Mao Communist Party deeply bureaucratic and conservative

Move to “capitalism” and “democracy” manipulative veneers?

A large middle class & big trade ties don’t stop war: Germany x2

China as potential military threat: Decoupled from BRAC debate

They gave the world Sun Tzu’s “Art of War” in 500 BC

Recent track record of cross-border aggression

Korea was first big U.S.-China war: brutal casualties

Tibet – blatant imperialism

Invading Vietnam – wakeup call for PRC to modernize

Russian border fighting in past, lovey-dovey now

Recent joint military exercise a giant trade show

High tensions with Japan – WWII hatreds linger

Spratly Islands 5-way territorial dispute – naval maneuvers

Forcing down, stripping U.S. state-of-the-art EP-3 spy plane

Chinese public ties this to bombing of Belgrade embassy

Chinese man & women in street glad about U.S. 9/11

PLAN admiral re Taiwan: “U.S. carriers keep out, or else”

Declared intent to have world-class blue water navy in 2020s

The 24-character strategy: “Never claim leadership” – uh oh!

Intentions versus capabilities???

How China is & isn’t like old USSR as a threat to America

Communist government, centralized control

ICBMs with H-bombs capable of hitting entire U.S.

Superb HumInt ops within U.S.

Superpower aspirations, a non-theist society

Crucial nautical choke points likely centers of naval conflict

Widening network of vassal states

Bottom-up intrusive control by local cadres: “block captains”

Strong economy, not weak and imploding one

Buying good arms and tech abroad

Much larger population to ramp up armed forces

Excellent year-round ice free harbors all along huge coastline

Always had a quasi-capitalist market under-culture

Careful studies done recently of Soviet cold war strategic mistakes

It’s all about submarine muscle: 21st century capital ships

Seize the initiative in cold (and hot) undersea warfare

Some lessons of history

Sea Power key to global hegemony

Foreign sea power enabled 19th, 20th century “imperialism”

Military and economic potency interrelate

Portugal, Spain, Holland each in their day

Britannia ruled the waves – note past tense

Japan as a (scary) cautionary lesson?

Commodore Perry “opens” a feudal Japan -- gunboat diplomacy

40 years later, Japan has modern combat fleet via UK help

Tsushima Strait: slaughters Russian Navy, shocks the world

30 years later, Imperial Japan invades Manchuria

Tokyo’s “Supercarrier” navy: Pearl Harbor

Modern-era Time Compression: “do the math” on China

Building global web of “coaling stations” (navy bases)

Is Taiwan a red herring?

Shift in Taiwan domestic politics is very significant

Hawkish president’s party losing, in the minority now

Legislature majority keeps stalling on defense

“One country, two systems” favored by many Taiwanese

Economic dependence on mainland to lift out of local recession

Ever stronger web of Island/Mainland business/social ties

PRC: Seduce, don’t conquer, a key stronghold and asset

Friendly Taiwan would give PLAN easy access to Pacific

Invasion impractical: no good landing beaches

Rocket bombardment pointless: destroys valuable infrastructure

Use American fixation on Taiwan for a sleight of hand elsewhere?

Announced PRC goal: triple the U.S. submarine fleet in 20 years

US goal is 48 subs in 2020s, PRC “New Fleet” 150+

Is “subs, not carriers” defensive or offensive now?

Are Ming-class accidents not the real point?

Good mix of foreign-bought & home-grown SSKs, SSNs, SSBNs

Buying Russian Improved Kilos with Air Independent Propulsion

Shkval torpedoes, & excellent sub-launched anti-ship missiles

U.S. intell missed the entire new PRC’s “093” SSN class – oops!

First PRC Aegis cruiser recently operational – oops again!

Will China buy Russian Akula-IIs and Severodvinsk/Borey next?

Walker spy ring data Moscow-to-Bejing jump-starts sub arms race